Jailed ex-CEO to sell YUKOS?


MOSCOW - Despite tough actions of Russian authorities, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who resigned as YUKOS CEO on Monday, continues to consider ways of selling a large stake in the company to a Western investor.

Last week, the US Department of State issued a strong statement in response to the arrest of Mr. Khodorkovsky by Russian authorities. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said Russian authorities should ensure an unbiased investigation into the case of YUCOS CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky. According to Mr. Boucher, the arrest and jailing of Mr. Khodorkovsky and the freezing of the company's shares raise serious questions about Russia's commitment to free market principles and independent judiciary. However, according to Russian analysts, these statements do not reflect the real attitude of the American elite to the events in Russia, and they are rather intended for 'home use'. With the help of such statements, part of the American establishment tries to clarify the position of US President George Bush on the developments in Russia.

The position of the US Department of State on the YUKOS affair, as expressed by Mr. Boucher, is not quite justified, experts say. Parallels are being drawn between the YUKOS case and the scandal around the US power giant Enron in 2001. Initially, American authorities were eager to investigate the financial operations of the Enron management. However, as new and new details emerged, which sent the country's stock market into turmoil, Washington decided to go back on its principles and put the matter under the carpet. Given all this, Mr. Boucher's words about an independent judiciary sound unconvincing.

In the opinion of Alexander Sobyanin, head of strategic planing at the Border Cooperation Association, Mr. Boucher's strong words most likely point to infighting within the US elite. "The United States' weight on the world arena should not be underestimated. Being the only global player, Washington can interfere in any affairs in any country, in principle. However, interference as such is not the most important factor in this case. There is a fierce struggle for power within the Bush administration. One of these groups is close to the Republican Party, and the other - to the Democratic Party. But none of these groups has yet been able to beat the other one. A good example is the situation in Iraq. First, Washington's position was to send troops to the country and establish a US regime there; however, the United States backed away from this plan later, and some functions were transferred to the United Nations. Similarly, Washington's position on Russia is not quite clear. So, Mr. Boucher's statement is just an attempt to translate the position of the part of the US business elite that is not supported by George Bush," Mr. Sobyanin said.

Alexander Blokhin, analyst with the Atlanta Capital investment company, agrees that Mr. Boucher's statement should not spark nerves. "Any country is free to express its opinion on various political and economic issues, in this or that form," he told RBC Daily. The analyst noted that tax crimes were traditionally seen as among the most serious crimes in the US, and, if the Russian court proves convincingly that Mr. Khodorkovsky evaded taxes, "America will buy the news readily". Moreover, in Mr. Blohkin's opinion, Mr. Boucher's statement may be part of a scenario developed jointly by the Kremlin and the White House. "I think, the statement of the US State Department was quite mild, which seems strange. Perhaps, it is due to the fact that certain tacit agreements were reached during the last meeting of Vladimir Putin and George Bush on how Russia will build its economic policy in the future," the analyst said.

Perhaps, it is for this reason that investors did not panic after the arrest of Mr. Khodorkovsky. "Investors are not going to withdraw from the Russian market, and they have been planning their future work with Russia since the time of the arrest. In addition, most of the US business elite are optimistic. Opinions are expressed that the YUKOS affair is just an isolated incident, which will be forgotten in half a year, and it is necessary to continue investing," Mr. Sobyanin says. According to analysts, investors, especially American businessmen, will be increasingly interested in Russia. It is clear that Washington's plans to establish full control over Iraqi oil resources have collapsed, and the Americans will continue looking for other cheap and safe sources of oil. In this respect, Russia is the most realistic option. It is not a coincidence that, prior to Mr. Khodorkovsky's arrest, the American companies ExxonMobil and ChevronTexaco were the most likely buyers of a stake in YUKOS.

Although the Americans are not in talks with YUKOS to buy a stake, from a formal point of view, this does not mean that the multinational oil companies dropped their plans to gain control of the Russian oil giant. According to some reports, large Western financial corporations already have such control, even if indirectly. The Sunday Times has reported recently that Lord Jacob Rothschild, the influential British financier and President of the Institute for Jewish Policy Research, had signed an agreement with YUKOS. According to the British newspaper, Lord Rothschild was to take control of a $12m stake in YUKOS should the company's head be arrested. This agreement, allegedly signed last summer, came into effect automatically after Mr. Khodorkovky was arrested on October 25. Lord Rothschild, who is well acquainted with Mikhail Khodorkovsky, is on the Board of the Open Russia Foundation, set up by YUKOS. Interestingly, another prominent member of the Board is the former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. Both of them represent the interests of large oil corporations, although unofficially. The Rothschild family is closely linked to Royal Dutch/Shell, and Henry Kissinger supports another powerful family - the Rockefellers, who still indirectly control ExxonMobil, built on the ruins of the oil monopoly Standard Oil.

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