The Standard & Poor`s rating agency has published a report on Russian banks on Wednesday, entitled “Bank Industry Risk Analysis: Russian Federation”. The agency's credit outlook for Russian banks is broadly positive, but its analysts did not rule out “a low-probability but very high-risk scenario of a banking industry meltdown ”.

The Novye Izvestia newspaper reports on the issue. According to analysts, there are several risk factors on the Russian banking market, including low capitalization and the lack of ownership transparency, aggravated by the fact that many Russian banks are closely linked to financial and industrial groups.

It is no secret that each financial and industrial group has its own “pocket bank”. For their part, the members of these groups make a complicated system of share ownership. This lack of transparency creates problems for investors, analysts say. Also, there is no single bank in Russia whose shares are actively traded on the market.

Another significant credit risk is the reliance of Russian banks on securities operations, which account for almost 70 percent of the operational revenues and 100 percent of net profits of Russian banks.

“If economic and regulatory reforms continue, Russian banks could carry on their breakneck pace of expansion for several more years. But success is not assured, because the industry has been slow to reform and many bad practices remain," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Scott Bugie.

According to the agency, the current turbulence in the country's interbank market, triggered by the failure of two small banks, is a reminder of the sector's high volatility.

At the moment, there is no immediate threat to Russian banks, but the crisis could be triggered by depositors if they begin withdrawing their deposits en masse. So far, a possible crisis is discussed in the financial press, but if such reports are made by federal TV channels, there will be a panic. According to analysts, people will remember the 1998 default, and a systemic collapse would be inevitable. A lot depends on the reasonable information policy of the Central Bank, they note.