Minister names new catalyst for economy


MOSCOW — Communications, trade and the services sectors, which grow faster that the GDP, could become a new engine of the Russian economy, Russian economy minister German Gref told reporters today.

“Oil production and oil exports stopped driving our economy in 2005,” he said, noting that economic slowdown in the first half of this year was due to lower rates of oil production and exports.

Gref said the export of oil had increased two to three percent from January to July this year, against about 14 percent in the same period of last year. This is not economic stagnation, he remarked, adding “it is the oil production industry that is stagnating.” At this point, it was important to diversify the national economy, the minister stressed.

As for plans to double the country’s GDP, Gref said Russia could get on track to reach this goal after 2008. To achieve that target, Russia’s GDP must grow by at least 7 percent a year. “If we implement reforms in the medium term, after 2008 we will be on the way to achieve that goal,” he said. Doubling the GDP by 2010 was unlikely, he noted. To meet the target by 2011, Russia’s economy has to grow 11 percent annually.

Last year, the country’s GDP grew 7.3 percent, and a 5.9 percent growth is expected this year.

Gref also said no sharp fluctuations in the ruble’s exchange rate were expected this year. “The ruble’s exchange rate will continue strengthening against the basket of major currencies,” the minister said, noting that the euro would be trading at $1.25 by the end of next year, according to the economy ministry's estimates.

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