Belarus uneasy on union currency

Issue Number: 
38
Author: 
Vladimir Kozlov
Published: 
1999-11-15


MINSK, Belarus - Plans for a single Russian-Belarussian currency are foundering as the financial leaders of the two nations attempt to set down the mechanics of their proposed union.

Pyotr Prokopovich, the head of the Belarussian National Bank, is expected to meet with Central Bank of Russia chief Viktor Gerashchenko later this month in a bid to end the gridlock.

But the meeting is unlikely to resolve the differences between the two, largely because Belarus is still demanding the right to print money - and formulate monetary policy - as a condition to its entry into the union, a spokesman for Prokopovich said.

Belarus has agreed that the Russian ruble should become the single currency of the new state, Prokopovich said at a press conference in Minsk. But he said that Belarus insists on establishing a Currency Council, made up of the heads of the two countries' national banks, which would decide issues of monetary policy and money emission. Prokopovich said he does not agree with Russia's plans to empower its Central Bank with the exclusive right to print money.

"We proceed on the assumption that the union is being formed as an alliance of two sovereign states," Prokopovich said.

The draft union agreement published in Belarus last month stipulates that a single currency should be introduced by 2005. Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko wants the deadline to be brought forward and cites the failure to adopt a single currency quickly as a major criticism of the treaty.

"What sort of state will it be if it lacks a single currency?" he said.

At the same time, the dispute may be a Belarussian smokescreen, according to Alexander Sosnov, an analyst from the Minsk-based Independent Institute for Social and Political Studies.

"The emission center is a pretext only," he said, adding that Lukashenko's biggest problem is that the draft does not address the position of the union's president, a post he has set his sights on.

"Regardless of what kind of emission center is used, the introduction of a single currency in Russia and Belarus is absolutely unrealistic at the current stage, because the economies of the two countries are too different," Sosnov said. "If there is a need to bring them to a common denominator, that means the Belarussian economy should be reformed in accordance with the Russian model."

Single currency plans were first brought up in 1993, long before any union agreement between the two countries. Then Belarussian Prime Minister Vyacheslav Kebich agreed with his Russian counterpart, Viktor Chernomyrdin, that the Russian ruble would replace the Belarussian ruble. The two even went so far as to announce dates for implementation. But the following year, Kebich, the leading presidential candidate, lost the election to Lukashenko, who later went ahead with his own integration policies.

Meanwhile, even members of Belarus' government fail to see eye to eye on the single currency issue. Foreign Minister Ural Latypov said Belarus would be left with Russia's financial "leftovers" under plans for a single money-issuing center. He suggested that a special second currency should be introduced instead, similar to the Comecon ruble of the Soviet era.

While the issues surrounding a single currency are still under consideration, Belarussian officials announced ruble redenomination last month. Existing bank notes will be exchanged during the year 2000 for a new issue, with one new ruble equal to 1,000 old rubles. The Belarussian ruble is currently set at about 700,000 rubles to one U.S. dollar on the black market.

Some experts have already branded the move as being altogether cosmetic. Stanislav Bog-dankevich, former head of the Belarussian National Bank, called the measure "absolutely stupid" in economic terms and said that any money reform should be "based on economic stabilization, balanced supply and demand and low inflation."

However, Prokopovich said that monetary reform will strengthen the Belarussian ruble and increase its purchasing power. The new bank notes are likely to stay in circulation for eight to ten years, until a single currency is adopted in Russia and Belarus, he said.


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