After Grozny…

Issue Number: 
45
Published: 
2000-01-24


Sooner rather than later, Russian forces will claim complete control of Grozny. Conventional wisdom has it that the war will be declared won at least a month out from the presidential elections.

But despite a good part of the Chechen forces being eliminated in the battle for Grozny, it is also likely that those remaining, with the help of rogue governments like the Taliban, will regroup to fight a protracted guerilla war against Russia.

Russia is in the vanguard of a struggle against the worst forms of terrorism. Unfortunately, like so many other battles in the country's history, it will find itself alone in this fight.

In the meantime, the young acting president has become the No. 1 enemy to many groups both inside and outside the country. Within Russia, he is up against the former Soviet elite (personified by men like Yevgeny Primakov), who cast themselves as democrats standing against the system of power. Few of these apparatchiks care that Putin inherits a deeply corrupt and rotten system – one they were instrumental in creating.

This system comprises an army that has been in decline for decades; a police force with criminals among its ranks; a bureaucracy that has been corrupt to the core for generations; and a political system without any ethical code. In this situation, the acting president's willingness to shoulder responsibility and take action make him an easy target.

If Putin wins the March presidential vote, redressing this situation promises a difficult agenda for his government in the coming months and years. Putin must, first and foremost, look the world in the eye and answer questions about the conduct of the army in Chechnya – human rights issues cannot be brushed under the carpet. Putin has shown relative openness and sincerity in addressing the issue so far. He must be willing to make his subordinates, his generals and, if necessary, himself, available to answer legitimate questions about the brutality unleashed on civilians.

That aside, whatever Russia's compulsion for entering and then intensifying the Chechen war, serious rethinking also needs to be done about the military's ability to wage such campaigns.

But the issue of how events reached the stage where full-scale war was required must also be investigated. What were the intelligence services doing to counter a terrorist threat? What happened to the money that was supposedly earmarked for Chechnya between 1996 and 1999? If Russia is to progress, those who failed in their duties must be called to account.

After that, Putin must turn to address the other Chechnyas on his map. In his own words, "there is a Chechnya wherever you look." The five minutes of economic sunshine he inherited – brought on by stimulation of domestic production from the August 1998 ruble devaluation and the surge in world oil prices – will not last forever.

Cautious liberal reform will not work. Putin must be prepared to employ tough measures for economic reform and lawmaking.

Putin's decision to install a Communist as Duma speaker may have been a good sign of "realpolitik," but he must not be afraid to take a firm stand on economic issues. He must show urgency and strong will in pushing through reforms that will bring a semblance of civility to the conduct of business in this country – both domestically and internationally.

The war on corruption must be equally tough. Endemic white-collar crime is no less a threat to Russian security and the Russian people than Chechen terrorists. The size of the government and its bureaucracy must be cut systematically. Corruption within the government's own ranks must be rooted out. Nothing short of a zero-tolerance policy toward corruption will work. Russia's middle class is being bled dry by the armies of fat cat bureaucrats that pervade Russian life.

While Putin's opponents – Primakov and the other foot soldiers of the stagnation era – could be forgiven for inertia and caution, Putin will have to address his tasks with a sense of urgency and commitment.

To rest and relax would be suicidal. There is a Grozny on every front, and these are battles he cannot afford to lose.

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